What’s Been Happening
I just got back in town, so let’s see what’s been happening:
1) The Brewers are on fire!
2) The Pirates are not.
3) I can’t wait to hear an impassioned defense of Jason Isringhausen, on how loading the bases and giving up a grand slam was all part of his master strategy. It was because he thought his "out" was Matt Murton.
Eat Your Heart Out, Bronson Arroyo
The Ballad of the Atlanta Braves
A few years back, I wrote and recorded a song to celebrate the achievements of the Atlanta Braves organization. It’s only a demo. But I just put it on the server of a friend of mine, so you can download it and check it out if you want. You can download it here. If you just want to listen to it, click on the afforementioned link. If you want to download it to your computer for you to cherish for all time, right-click on the link and choose "save target as."
What’s that? You think this is weird? It is weird. I wrote it when I was much younger than I am now, and I had much less going on in my life.
Jason Isringhausen
It looks like the new, smarter Jason Isringhausen is no more effective than the old, stupid Jason Isringhausen. "Izzy," true to the form he’s displayed the last few years, was handed the ball in the ninth inning of last night’s Cardinals/Phillies contest, where he promptly issues a couple of hits and a walk to load the bases. Who says there’s no poetry in baseball?
La Russa, walks to the mound and points with his right-index finger, as if to say "Give me Isringhausen." Isringhausen, wearing a determined scowl, makes his way from the bullpen to the mound. They exchange a few words and then La Russa hands him the ball. Isringhausen pulls the bill of his cap down over his face. He is ready. He won’t be rejected. Not here. Not tonight. What’s his out pitch? The cutter, of course. Every other pitch he uses builds around getting to his cutter. But the hitters realize this. They know that Isringhausen won’t serve up a fat pitch because he’s looking to use his cutter. So they watch. And wait. Ball one is a curve ball, just missing off the corner of the plate. Ball two is a four-seamer outside. Now he has the hitter right where he want him! The next pitch is a fastball called strike on the inside corner; a pitch the hitter can afford to watch because he’s ahead in the count 2-0. Isringhausen executes his pitch. Now the count is 2-1. He’s still behind the hitter. What to do? He can either go back to the breaking pitch, or go to his cutter earlier in the count than he’d like to. Yadi Molina flashes the signal for the cutter. They agree. And the batter strokes the pitch for a single, setting up a hectic ninth for the Cardiac Cardinals.
The details of this pitch-sequence may not be exactly accurate, but it IS poetic!
Ballparks and More
Washington Ballpark
In today’s Wall Street Journal, architecture critic Catesby Leigh hammered plans for the new Washington ballpark. He writes:
What we get with the Nationals’ current design is a ballpark bowl enclosed by banal buildings with limestone (or precast concrete, depending on budgetary factors) unimaginatively framing vast expanses of glass.
and:
The design goes from banal to pretentious at the ballpark’s south end, where a triangular volume derived from I.M. Pei’s National Gallery East Building is awkwardly appended to emphasize, and indeed exaggerate, the nonperpendicular intersection of South Capitol Street and Potomac Avenue.
I am no expert in contextual architecture, but I do know a good-looking ballpark from an ugly one. In my opinion, the plans for the new Washington park definitely belong to the latter; these designs make it look like a converted office park.
Busch III
The new Busch Stadium in St. Louis was showcased last night in a game between the AAA club in Memphis, and the AA affiliate out of Springfield, MO. The new Busch is stunning. I still hate the fact that tickets are terribly expensive, you can’t find any to buy, the average fan got priced out, the people that get to afford games now are the passively interested customers of some client who is in town on business. I hate the fact that much of it was built with faux brick. But from an aesthetic perspective, the new facility is stunning.
Ryan Freel
Chewing tobacco notwithstanding, Ryan Freel is OK in my book. I just saw him single-handedly make Dusty Baker concede third base as "stolen" because Baker didn’t want his guys to move out of position, in an attempt to take out the hit-and-run. He’s a guy that will play a lot of positions for you, which leads me to question: Why don’t we respect these guys like we respect the multi-faceted football player? Wasn’t Kordell Stewart nicknamed "Slash"? Troy Brown of the Patriots and Neon Deion Sanders were great two-way threats. To be fair, Jose Oquendo was nicknamed "The Secret Weapon," but that’s about it, as far as clever nicknames for utility guys go.
Tim Wallach
That being said, today we honor the legacy of Tim Wallach. Tim Wallach is a guy who was not unlike Oquendo, in that he played every position (except catcher), but unlike Oquendo, Tim Wallach never had a great nickname (as far as I know). Therefore, I propose Tim "Eli" Wallach after the actor that was in "The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. Eli Wallach was the Ugly. Tim Wallach pitched a total of two innings over the course of his major-league career. His ERA from the first game, in 1987 was 0.00, which is very GOOD. His ERA from the second game, in 1989, was 9.00, which is very BAD. His career ERA is 4.50…not good, not bad, but UGLY.
Bonds on Bonds
I want to like Barry Bonds. I really do. Nothing would make me happier than to be able to root for him this season to pass the Babe and later Hank Aaron. But I can’t.
I just caught the highlights from the first episode of "Bonds on Bonds."
1) Why would we expect to see the real Barry Bonds? Do we think we saw the real Bobby Knight on "Knight School"? I don’t think so. This whole show is Barry’s design on how he wants to be remembered.
2) Barry keeps promising to stop talking to the media, but all I’ve been seeing lately is Barry in the media. He says he doesn’t like the cameras, but everything I’ve seen really suggests that he loves the cameras. He wants to be a movie star when he’s finished, right? Why would he choose a second career, possibly the only career, where there are even more cameras? Maybe he actually likes the cameras after all.
3) From the highlights I saw, it appears as if Barry is trying to run a very neat trick on us. He weeps in front of the camera, about how much everything weighs on him and the like. But I don’t know whether or not I can believe him. If I should ask him "Barry, how can we believe you? How can we believe you about steroids and not eating dinner at Ken Griffey’s Jr.’s house and everything he would likely look in the camera and say "I don’t give an ‘f’ whether you believe me or not." And therein lies the problem. Barry has no credibility and he is not willing to try to build any. Derek Jeter has credibility. Ken Griffey Jr. has credibility. Dale Murphy had credibility. Mark McGwire has none. Raffy Palmeiro has none. And Barry Bonds has none.
There are some racist people in the world that hate Barry because of his skin color. For that he has my deepest sympathy. I also saw Ken Burns’ Baseball, the final chapter, in which he interviews Hank Aaron. Hank showed several letters that he received of the same type, death threats, racist propoganda and the like. The implication that Barry attempts is that to question the validity of Barry is to side with the racists. And nobody wants that.
He said, through tears, that he would "like to walk away, but he can’t." and that "he doesn’t need the money." So the money means nothing to him? Is that what I hear him saying?!?!? That goes against everything I’ve ever read about Barry Bonds. Remember that thing in New York a couple of years ago, when you could pay several hundred dollars to hang out with Barry for half a hour? Both him and ARod participated, although ARod donated his share to charity. Barry donated his share to Barry.
All these things aside, I would like to root for Barry, I really would. Steroids or not, he’s still one of the greatest players I’ve ever seen. But then, this magical thing happened: He started to hit more home runs as he got older; something that has never happened before. Maybe it was his ego, his pride that made him do it; I don’t know. Maybe he is completely innocent, and all of these things (leaked grand jury testimony, Book of Shadows, etc.) have him all wrong. But Barry surely isn’t going to tell me. Oh well. Maybe he’ll at least say some things about Jeff Kent, another guy I’m not particularly fond of.
Yesterday
Tony La Russa seems like he’s getting old. Whenever I see an interview with him, it seems like he’s definitely not the guy he used to be. In today’s STL Post-Dispatch, Miklasz postulated that La Russa could keep on managing because it would be hard for him to walk away in the middle of Albert Pujols’ career. I don’t buy it. This is probably Tony’s last season (for now–he could always go Jim Leyland or Jack McKeon on us and resurface somewhere in ten years).
The A’s lost last night! Why? Well, it couldn’t have been the fact that Barry the Yogamaster Zito had a horrific start. It couldn’t be the possibility that Johnson was unhittable, exploiting the A’s tendency to watch borderline pitches be called strikes. It couldn’t be the possibility that a lot of balls bounced off of guys gloves in the field. I know what it was!!! None of the A’s scored a base on balls last night! I’ll bet Beane was fuming, pacing around outside the Colisseum. Speaking of the Colisseum, what’s with that plywood "Home of the Oakland Athletics" sign they took out the upper deck for? Were they really drawing so few fans? Should the A’s move to a new city, that will make the fourth new home for the franchise that originated in Philadelphia. That would definitely be a record, I think, in ANY sport. The closest competition I can think of is the Arizona Cardinals, who have had three home towns (Chicago, St. Louis and now Arizona) as well as the worst owner of all-time (Bill Bidwell).
Connie Mack was a guy who was not all-that different from some of the owners of today. He ran his club on the idea that he didn’t need to be good enough to challenge every year; His Philadelphia A’s only needed to be good enough to get people in the stands. In other words, he figured out the exact point to where the marginal cost of one additional salary would be equal to the marginal benefits of one additional win. Clever man. I wonder what it feels like, to be a fan going into a season and knowing that your club is not going to win the World’s Series.
First Impressions
1) During last night’s game between the White Sox and the Indians, Joe Morgan mentioned that stories where guys have amphetamine-laden coffee pots around the clubhouse are somewhat outlandish. That might be. But he should be able to see why it’s not crazy for us to all to believe something like that, though. When I was a kid, I thought they called Tim Raines "Rock" because he played hard. As it turns out, he only slid head-first to keep the cocaine in his back pocket intact. And as far as I know, this kind of thing was always out and in the open in the clubhouse. The White Sox looked awful good last night, though.
2) On ESPN Classic the other day, I was watching part of Jim Abbott’s no-hitter against the afformentioned Cleveland Indians. This was in early fall, a couple of days after the September call-ups. Who had been called up that year? Why Manny Ramirez. Anyway, Abbott had surrendered a walk in the fifth inning to the guy in front of Manny (it might have been Carlos Baerga, I forgot). Manny hits the ball to one of the middle-infielders, who flips the ball to the other middle-infielder and then the quick turn to first for the double-play. Why is this interesting? As Mattingly grabbed the ball at first, the announcers pointed out how Manny hadn’t bothered to put much effort into beating the throw. In fact, well after Mattingly had caught the ball, Manny was nowhere to be seen. I guess some things never change.
3) Today’s I honor Nelson Santovenia. Over the course of 887 career ABs, Nelson racked up 206 hits (7 seasons worth of MLB service).
4) I do like the new opening for ESPN Baseball, what with the baseball-card themed intro and all.
5) The Cardinals looked pretty good today, for anybody who didn’t notice. Pujols had a couple of homers (2 for 2), while Rolen had a GS; Aaron Miles had a four-hit day (believe that? Now THAT’s outlandish!), and Eckstein made a nice catch. They could turn out to be pretty decent. I’m all turned around now on Sidney Ponson. I had been rooting for the guy ever since Jeff Brantley trashed him last summer (Brantley, by the way, is the only remaining member of the 1990 Reds team that still perms his hair). It hurt me when Ponson assaulted the Aruban judge, but now it seems like he’s cleaned his act up. Good for you, Sidney.
6) The Reds, on the other hand, could be much, much worse than any of us thought. Well, many thought that they’d finish in the cellar. I also think they will probably finish in the cellar, but let’s hope they don’t get "Royal"ly bad.
Eat Your Heart Out, Rob Neyer
The WHIFF Index
The other day, I was working on my BOGUS indicator, and I developed a new moneyball stat that I know fantasy GMs everywhere are just going to eat it up. The WHIFF index–Why Harden Is (going to be) Freakin’ Fantastic– measures the number of times in a game that a given pitcher can get hitters from the opposing, normally-distributed line-up to either swing-and-miss at three pitched balls, watch passively as three balls move from the pitcher’s hand to the middle-area of the receiver’s matrix, or any combination therein. Since the key is the integer “3” we must construct a 3×3 receiver’s matrix to measure the location of the pitched ball to determine whether or not the pitch-instance can be added to the WHIFF function. In the graphics below, you will see 1) The receiver, 2) The receiver’s matrix, and 3) the receiver with the matrix construct. The WHIFF function was built on a series of binaries, where a “1” or “True” would indicate a ball either in the middle-zone of the matrix or a swing-and-miss; and a “0” or “False” when the ball fell in any one of the remaining eight zones and the batter did not swing. The middle-zone of the matrix was determined to have a z-value of plus-minus 6 inches, with x-value of plus-minus 7 inches.
After each pitched ball has been assigned to a matrix-zone, each matrix cell then contains a value representing the pitched ball for that at-bat. Each column of the matrix represents the pitch-location/hitter-selection variables associated with an at-bat, and then we can solve the matrix from there. Why? Because we know that the main equation must equal “3” for a WHIFF indicator to be added.
We can then go in and add up these WHIFF indicators over a guy’s season or a career. Here is my WHIFF-adjusted all-time pitcher’s list:
Player
WHIFF-Indicator
Nolan Ryan
5714
Roger Clemens
4502
Randy Johnson
4372
Steve Carlton
4136
Bert Blyleven
3701
Tom Seaver
3640
Don Sutton
3574
Gaylord Perry
3534
Walter Johnson
3509
Phil Niekro
3342
Steroids
I keep hearing that I am going to be shocked by the names that might be mentioned in connection with the steroids probe. Let’s be honest here: my life is not going to be wrecked if I find out that Brady Anderson did steroids. It won’t be wrecked if I find out that anybody named “Boone” did steroids. The only way I will be disappointed is if I find out that 1) Ken Griffey Jr., 2) Derek Jeter, or 3) Dale Murphy did steroids. For me, anybody who’s name is cleared will be a bonus.
Some Last Words on Moneyball
After this, I’m going to shut-up about Moneyball for a while. I might catch a couple of A’s games on tv this summer on TV; it depends on whether Harden is pitching.
I keep hearing, whenever I point out the obvious Moneyball draft flops (that is, guys that no other club prior to 2002 would take), I hear "well, you can’t expect every one of these guys to pan out. We have to cut Beane some slack." But that’s not good enough. Moneyball was all about reducing the uncertainty associated with the draft, and to justify Moneyball as a philsophy, a percentage of these moneyballers need to make it to the majors. I don’t know what the percentage is, but it doesn’t even have to be comparable to what the Atlanta Braves are doing. I do know that a "bad-bodied" catcher that hits .270 in the minors isn’t going to cut it.
My brother just walked through here wearing an Oakland A’s hat. He knows next to nothing about baseball (we’re not close, but not for these reasons). My brother fancies himself to be quite the cosmopolitan, having spent a year studying in Japan, proclaiming himself to be a “vegan,” wanting to “leave the country” in protest of certain political realities, and looking down on the rest of my Midwestern family among many other things.
The Oakland A’s are the height of cosmopolitan cool. Why is that?
If I’ve seen anything on TV over the past twenty years, I know that “young” and “chic” is cool, appealing. They stock their club with young guys who don’t cost much money, have wild hair and surf on the weekends. Everybody wants to be young again, right? Even St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz has an earring. “Old” and “proven” is associated with tired and worn down; it makes us think of our own mortality and that scares us.
But Billy Beane still chews tobacco. I’ve seen some public service announcements from Lenny Dykstra that leads me to believe that, as a society, we still look down on this. So does Terry Francona, I believe. That’s not cool, is it? WHen the Reds traded Wily Mo Pena to the Red Sox, Billy likely through a chair through a wall at the Colisseum. Do we look up to guys who act like an eight-year old whose Mom just made him eat his vegetables?
The A’s process their club with precise “numbers” and “analysis”—very European. Although I’m not sure how well it’s worked out for the Europeans. France is on the decline—the need for labor market liberalization has been met with a series of protests by lovers of the former USSR—a very statistically-minded organization.
When you say that you are with the A’s, Red Sox or Blue Jays, what you’re saying is that you’re wise to a “better” or “smarter” way of doing things. I mean, take a look at Red Sox owner John Henry. That guy has Eastern patrician snob written all over him. Being a Moneyball guy is really just another way of claiming superiority over other people, drawing new class distinctions as the old ones die out.
Steroids and More!
The Monstrous-Cut Monk logo was actually a premonition of the Ryan Klesko era.
1) It seems that I’ve heard a lot these past few days about what other dirt might be uncovered by Senator Mitchell’s steroids probe. There’s another angle, though. What if the inquiry clears somebody’s name? What if Roger Clemens’ name is cleared of any wrongdoing? We might have a few more villains come out of this, but we might even get a few heroes. If the game is “bigger than any one person,” as Kennesaw Mountain Landis wrote when he banned Joe Jackson and the rest of the Black Sox, then it’s also bigger than Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire or any other athlete that may turn out to be fraudulent.
2) Some ballplayers have made a good point, though. Why is this just happening now? Wasn’t MLB aware of what was going on five, even ten years ago? Good times begat silence; and so this points to the obvious: baseball needs a permanent, independent commissioner who does not have an interest in any one team’s financial well-being.
3) The 2006 edition of the Chicago White Sox kick off the season Sunday night against the Cleveland Indians. I will be watching it. If there’s any one guy in baseball that won’t lose his edge after a championship, it’s got to be Ozzie Guillen. Maybe this year they’ll make Luke Perry their official mascot.
4) I’ve decided to develop my own Moneyball stat. It’s going to be the “Balls Optimal Growth Under Strikouts” stat or, “BOGUS.” As we speak, I am sorting through mountains of data to prepare this for all of you vigilant Fantasy GMs out there. My statistical strategy is to plot out balls and strikes for a given player on a Cartesian plane, draw an OLS line through the data, and then take these coefficients to create a weighted average for one all-encompassing index. Then, I will plot these indexes out for a given player’s career in a matrix built around “pitching type.” By doing this, I will have successfully plotted a player’s performance against one type of pitching, thereby allowing me to accurately predict how, for example, Bobby Abreu will fare in an at-bat against Odalis Perez based on three at-bats Abreu had against Donovan Osborne in 1996. I’m really excited about this; maybe I can get the Oakland A’s to hire me as an analyst. Yes, that’s what I will do: I will go to work for the A’s, until the Blue Jays come in and offer me a lot of money, on the understanding that I replace the scouting staff with a spreadsheet. I would find it hard to put a scout out of business, however. They’ve always got something clever to say about a guy and I like to listen to them talk.
5) One of the columnists from Sports Illustrated picked the Cardinals to win the National League, but they aren’t going to do it with what they’ve got now. They’ve got good pitching, there’s no doubt about that. But look what happened in 2004 and 2005: In the 2004 World’s Series, the bats went silent, all except for the since-retired Larry Walker. The same thing happened in the 2005 NLCS. The Cardinals have since subtracted from the firepower of those teams. If what they had wasn’t good enough in 2004 and 2005, why will they be better with less in 2006? Maybe they can convert Jason Marquis to an outfielder to get him some at-bats on his days off, as well as occasionally spell the over-extended Larry Bigbie.
6) Some folks are writing off the Atlanta Braves. Why? In Sunday’s St. Louis Post-Dispatch, one of the beat writers dismissed the Braves as a “team on the decline.” He said that their young players overachieved last season. They wrote off the Braves last year, the year before that and the year before that. I won’t write off the Braves until they write themselves off. With Cox at the helm and a supply-chain that has been the best in baseball, there’s no sign of that happening.
7) It has come to my attention that my blog might not be the most cherished of blogs on the mlblogs website. My blog was removed from the “featured blogs” list. Why is that? I almost certainly will never be featured on the “MLBlogosphere Blog.” That being said, I guess I will have to do an interview/profile with myself here.
Q—You don’t have much going on in your life, do you?
A—I am starting my PhD this fall. The period before I start is a slow time.
Q—What’s your favorite Toad the Wet Sprocket Song?
A—Walk on the Ocean.
8) Here’s is a bit of analysis from an anonymous friend of mine that came via electronic mail yesterday.
I read an interview with Mark Grace in The Sporting News. He said:
He didn’t use steroids, but was offerred them many times. He also said he saw a lot of guys doing it with his own eyes. When asked would he vote for Rafeal Palmeiro, Bonds, or McGwire to be in the HOF, he said because Palmeiro tested positive, he would not vote for him. He said he would need to think long and hard about the other two and get some more info. When asked if he would for Sosa, he said "No. In a word. No." Now, by my logic, he is pretty much saying he knows that Sosa used.
Steroid Inquiry
I support Bud Selig’s decision to launch a formal inquiry into the steroid matter. Why? These guys (all of them—Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Jose Canseco, and a host of other guys who probably used steroids but whose brevity marginalizes their importance) were chemical freaks; McGwire and Sosa embarked in their legendary duel of 1998; Bonds had 2001 and then 700, probably 715 and we’re not yet sure about Hank Aaron’s mark).
My point is this: all these records belong to these chemical freaks. Therefore, it took these chemicals to break the records and establish new, even greater records. If we no longer tolerate steroids in baseball, then is there any possible way that new records can be established by younger, natural athletes? I fully expect that if Bonds is allowed to pass Aaron, his record will still stand 100 years from now. There are limits on what a natural human being is physically capable of. The record book becomes meaningless and I no longer care about it. That’s why the Player’s Union should go along with this inquiry: future players are the future of the union; it hurts the marketability of the players when I stop caring about how their career is progressing. Why hang on to the reputation of a few guys who are either retired or on their way out when the future credibility of the entire profession is at stake?
Some have said that steroids don’t “help you hit the ball,” but I don’t really believe that. The only guys to have touched Maris/Ruth single-season territory are guys that have all been implicated.
Some have also pointed to Alex Rodriguez as a possibility to be a natural guy to break Hank Aaron’s all-time mark, but I don’t believe that either. He’ll get older and slow down in the natural way. I remember that Ken Griffey Jr. was a sure-lock to become the all-time HR leader until age and injuries crept up on the Best Player of the 1990’s. Griffey Jr., by the way, is above any suspicion of steroid use. I figure A-Rod to hit 600, but probably not 700.
Some might also say “well, they brought the fences in at most ballparks for the 1990’s. Wouldn’t that call into question any record set by Bonds or McGwire anyway?” I don’t pass this argument either. Everybody in the game played on the same, legal, level playing field (albeit a smaller playing field); there was no ethics involved because it was part of the official rules. It didn’t involve hooking up with shady characters like Victor Conte or having a guy in Tiajuana who will load a U-HAUL up with horse steroids once a month for you. The small parks of the 1990’s was an “era.” Steroids was a “scandal.”
Today was a big day for former Balco chief Victor Conte. Not only was he released from prison, but he also came out defending Barry Bonds, trashing the reputation of the intrepid San Francisco reporters in the process. Finally, somebody credible is willing to stand and deliver for Bonds! I mean, Mark McGwire had Tony La Russa, right? I distinctly remember Tony La Russa defending McGwire, only to later be embarrassed as McGwire clammed up in front of the Congress and the entire nation. Anybody could see that McGwire was obviously ‘roiding, just as Jose Canseco reported, for most of his major league career (it was in-between all the stuff about speeding off in one of his twelve Lamborghinis to visit Madonna). I mean, I could never imagine Victor Conte doing or saying anything for his own benefit.
For most of his career, Bonds acted like he’s the only guy in the entire world. Finally, now he gets to actually feel like he’s the only guy in the world. It’s probably a lot lonelier then he imagined it would be.
A Few Random Thoughts
I was watching Ken Burns’ Baseball last week on DVD, specifically the disc that covers the Big Red Machine and the 1975 World’s Series. Looking at actual images of the guys that played on those teams, I was struck by the physical contrast between the Reds of the 1970′s and some of our modern-era sluggers.
Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, Joe Morgan; all those guys were cut. Not "bulky" like McGwire, Giambi, Bonds, Sheffield as well as few others, but "muscular" cut. Surely somebody had a few ideas of what was going on.
The Cardinals cut Deivi Cruz. He was mentioned by one St. Louis sportwriter as being a competitive candidate for the starting job at 2B. Those heady days are long over…or are they? Compared to the spring that the othe 2B candidates have had, Cruz was only moderately terrible.
I hope that Jimmy Rollins has a strong start with the bat. I’ve always like Rollins…has anybody noticed that the well of premiere shortstops has dried over the past few years? Nomar is playing 1B now in Los Angeles and Rodriguez is playing third for New York. Edgar Renteria is trying to have a bounceback season after a miserable campaign in Boston last season. Maybe Edgar’s agent wasn’t giving him smart advice after all.
I’ve got some more thoughts, but they’ll have to be posted later today; I’ve got to run to a meeting now.




Recent Comments